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Having scored nine times in his initial seven league matches, Manchester City striker Erling Haaland has begun the season in spectacular form.

Even though this doesn't represent his strongest opening to a term - he scored 11 goals in his opening seven appearances in 2022-23 and 10 last season - it nevertheless places him three goals ahead in the early running for this campaign's English top-flight Golden Boot.

What makes this not one of his nine strikes have been penalties makes it all the more impressive.

Haaland's Distinct Advantage

Of course, physical problems might significantly impact in the final top scorer outcome, but there are two key factors why Haaland is such a clear frontrunner for the award so quickly into the term.

First, the number of goals he has already scored - and, equally significant, the quantity and caliber of chances he is getting.

And second, the modest opening his regular challengers for the honor have made.

Expected Goals Analysis

A player's expected goals number (xG) signifies how many goals a Premier League player has traditionally converted from the quantity and caliber of chances he has had.

This isn't a number randomly picked by statistics boffins, but by English top-flight records.

Upon reviewing at attackers' xG statistics in the Premier League so far this campaign from regular situations, the Scandinavian attacker is receiving significantly more excellent scoring situations to convert than any other player.

Indeed, even if Haaland were no better at scoring from situations than any other player in the competition, he would nonetheless have netted over double the amount goals as all other players.

Scoring Situation Assessment

This is shown by examining the total and standard of chances that attackers have encountered in the Premier League so far.

Haaland has attempted 29 efforts so far this season, twelve additional compared to every other footballer.

That is actually not especially surprising for him - he had in fact attempted more open-play attempts at this point in the last two seasons (30 in the 2023-24 season and 34 in the 2024-25 campaign).

What's particularly exceptional even for Haaland is the quality of chances he has had this campaign. His shots have had an chance quality metric of 0.27 per attempt.

This statistic indicates is that footballers have traditionally scored the efforts he's registered at a 27% success ratio.

Among footballers attempting at minimum ten attempts, only Chelsea midfielder Enzo Fernandez has had more straightforward opportunities to net per shot - due to a several close-range conversions against West Ham United and Brighton.

City striker's xG statistic of 0.27 is considerably superior than the 0.17 xG rating per attempt he had at the beginning of the previous campaign.

In short, the scoring situations he has had in 2025-26 have been significantly more straightforward to find the net from in a restructured Manchester City side than those at the start of the previous campaign.

Previous Season Assessment

Beginning a campaign so strongly is, as noted earlier, not unusual for Haaland. Following seven matches last term he had netted ten times - a quartet more than anyone else and half-dozen more than Mohamed Salah.

Yet it was the Reds attacker who claimed the top scorer award with 29 goals, seven additional compared to the Etihad attacker.

This season, while Haaland has begun spectacularly, Salah has registered half as many goals and had fifty percent fewer opportunities (xG) than at this juncture last term.

Actually this has been the most subdued opening to a Premier League term the Pharaohs star has made.

Competitors' Modest Opening

It's not merely Salah who has opened quietly either. When examining at the eleven leading goalscorers in the Premier League last campaign, Haaland has registered an equal amount goals as the remaining ten footballers put together so far.

Whether because of injuries - several key attackers - protracted transfer stories in a specific forward's circumstances or simply because their clubs have faced difficulties (Bryan Mbeumo, Chris Wood, Ollie Watkins and Matheus Cunha), Haaland's likely rivals in the race for the Golden Boot have not fired so far.

European Golden Shoe Race

Although the Norwegian appears the distinct favorite for the Premier League Golden Boot, what about the European Golden Shoe that is given to the footballer scoring the most in the continent's elite divisions?

That race is significantly tighter at this opening period because Harry Kane and Kylian Mbappe have likewise begun in excellent condition, with 11 and nine goals respectively.

The reality Haaland has scored so many times and has the highest xG of the trio without having taken any from the penalty spot renders him the frontrunner.

However, because the English and French stars are some of the most excellent finishers in continental soccer in terms of exceeding their expected goals, the competition remains open.