Netherlands Elections: Major Parties and Main Issues in Early Election
Voters in the Netherlands are set to possibly exchange the most rightwing government in modern history with a more centrist and pragmatic alliance during early general elections scheduled for October 29.
The Situation and Why It Matters
Snap general elections were triggered after the collapse of the previous administration in June, when far-right politician the Freedom party leader withdrew his party from an increasingly fractious and highly ineffectual governing alliance.
Wilders' party had finished shockingly first in the 2023 election, and after prolonged talks established a unstable multi-party conservative alliance with the BBB party, NSC party and liberal-conservative VVD.
Nevertheless, Wilders' government allies deemed him too controversial for the prime minister position, which was given to a ex-security head. Wilders, an immigration-skeptic polemicist who has required security detail for two decades, resorted to sniping from outside government.
Wilders finally caused the coalition breakup on 3 June after his allies declined to adopt a far-reaching 10-point immigration restriction proposal that included using military forces to patrol borders, turning back all asylum seekers, shutting down asylum centers and repatriating all Syria nationals.
Although backing of the PVV has declined, surveys suggest the far-right, anti-Islam party is once more projected to secure the largest representation in parliament. However, main Dutch political formations have all ruled out forming a government with Wilders.
At least 16 parties are forecast to enter parliament, but none is projected to win more than about one-fifth of the vote. As usual, the next Dutch government, generally an significant force on the European and global scene, will be formed following alliance talks that could last months.
Electoral Mechanics and Party Environment
The parliament contains 150 representatives in the Netherlands legislature, meaning a government needs 76 seats to form a majority. No single party typically achieves this, and the Holland has been ruled by multi-party governments for more than a century.
Parliament is elected quadrennially – sooner when governments collapse – through party-list system, based on an certified roster of candidates in a country-wide district: any party that wins 0.67% of the vote is guaranteed a seat.
As in many European nations, Dutch politics have been marked in modern times by a significant drop in backing of the historical ruling parties from the moderate right and left, whose electoral support has decreased from over four-fifths in the 1980s to just over 40% now.
In the Netherlands, this process has been accompanied by a spectacular proliferation of minor political groups: twenty-seven are competing this time, including a senior citizens' party, a party for youth, a animal rights party, a party for universal basic income, and a party for sport.
Major Parties and Main Issues
In the lead is Wilders' PVV, forecast to drop as many as eight of the 37 seats it secured last election. It proposes, among other policies, a total moratorium on refugee admissions, Ukrainian men to be sent home, the military to fight "urban violence", and an end to "woke indoctrination" in schools.
Two political groups, of the centre-right and centre-left, are neck-and-neck after the PVV. The Christian Democrats (CDA) led Netherlands government from the end of the seventies to the beginning of the nineties, and once more in the early 2000s, but dropped to just five seats in the previous poll.
However, under Henri Bontenbal, its promising new figure, who joined political life only four years ago, the party has recovered strongly with a campaign highlighting the dire Dutch housing crisis and a promise of "normal, civilised politics". It is on course for up to twenty-six mandates.
GreenLeft/Labour (GL/PvdA), an political partnership between the environmentalist party and the 80-year-old Dutch Labour party that is anticipated to become a full-blown merger, is on track to win a similar number, according to survey data.
Led by the experienced former European commissioner Frans Timmermans, it has made building more new homes its biggest priority, and has debatedly proposed a immigration limit of between forty to sixty thousand people a year in its platform.
Three additional groups look likely to be important players in the new parliament.
The liberal-progressive D66 is projected to gain seats – securing as many as seventeen, from its current nine – under its straight-talking youthful head, with a platform centred on housing (it plans to construct ten new urban centers) and an "personal minimum income" for claimants.
The liberal-conservative VVD, the party of the former prime minister (now Nato chief), is predicted to slump to at most 16 seats from its present twenty-four, with its head, criticized of taking the party too far to the right, held responsible for its decline. It is promising business tax cuts and reduced social benefits.
The anti-establishment, strictly rightwing JA21 is a breakaway group from a different rightwing formation – the previously successful, now scandal-hit FvD – and appears to be profiting from an departure of supporters from the PVV, BBB and VVD. It could win up to 14 seats.
Besides the two main rightwing parties, both remaining members in the ill-fated previous government, the farmer and centrist parties, are projected to lose out, with the NSC not even sure of representation in parliament.
The top issues currently have been immigration, with multiple – sometimes violent – protests against proposed asylum facilities for refugee applicants, the cost of living, and the chronic Netherlands issue of accommodation (the country is short of 400,000 homes).
Possible Coalition Scenarios
Considering the deeply divided state of Netherlands political landscape, what coalitions are actually possible is equally significant as who finishes first (or in this case, probably runner-up, since no major party will govern with Wilders, who maintains he intends to head a minority administration).
Following the vote, MPs first appoint an informateur, who seeks out possible alliances. Once a viable coalition has been identified, a formateur, usually the leader of the biggest prospective member, begins discussing the government program. This can take months.
Various combinations look possible, most involving a mix of parties from moderate left and moderate right. The most likely, according to coalition experts, include CDA and GL/PvdA, plus Democrats 66 and one or more smaller parties possibly incorporating the conservative party.
