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For a decade, Europe has been trapped in a seemingly endless state of migration emergency. While the ancient meaning of crisis points to a temporary disruption from the norm, since 2015 it has become an enduring feature of the European political landscape. That fateful year, around one million individuals fled war and persecution to seek safety in Europe. In the years that followed, the topic of migration has been so thoroughly weaponised that it is now hard to recall a period when it was not described as an existential crisis.

This notion of a permanent emergency does not reflect a reality where Europe is genuinely incapable of handling new arrivals. Instead, it showcases the simple fact that many parties profit from creating a constant feeling of crisis.

These crisis narratives sustain a political economy of fear and have catalysed far-reaching changes to Europe's border architecture and migration policies. The European border-industrial complex is flourishing, with major profiteers including the EU's border agency, whose funding has skyrocketed from a modest sum in 2014 to exceeding one billion euros today—amid frequent accusations of complicity with rights violations. Throughout Europe, private military and surveillance firms have landed high-value deals that have further militarised the area's frontiers.

The Ascendancy of the Hard Right and the Politics of Copycat

Promising that the events of 2015 will not be repeated, conservative and far-right political forces are on the rise across Europe, seemingly determined to stoking anti-migrant sentiment and making mainstream racist "great replacement" narratives. The xenophobic fringe has grabbed its opportunity. However, the fact that Europe has grown more unwelcoming for migrants and racialised minorities is largely due to the dangerous cynicism of mainstream parties that seek to beat the hard right at its own game.

Germany provides a clear example. Exploiting the 2015 "migration wave", the far-right Alternative for Germany (AfD) first won seats in the federal parliament in 2017. Since then, as opposition leader and later as chancellor, the CDU's Friedrich Merz has veered hard to the right. Pursuing an aggressive anti-migration agenda, he has uttered statements widely viewed as discriminatory, such as a recent suggestion that mass removals were needed to resolve a "visible issue in urban areas". This approach of copycat politics has had the opposite effect, with the AfD's support rising dramatically to now rival Merz's own party.

In the UK, the current Labour government confronts a similar fate. Under immense pressure from the hard-right Reform UK party, it has announced what it calls "the toughest asylum reforms in modern times". These draconian plans would make refugee status temporary, cut support, tear apart families, and leave many in a legal purgatory for years. This tactic does not contain forces on the right flank; it strengthens them. Reform UK praised the announcement, while extremist figures celebrated a perceived obliteration of the political mainstream.

A Spiral of Cruelty and an Authoritarian Horizon

For the far right across Europe, the "political boon" of border panics continues to deliver. A critical lesson must be reiterated: when you engage in a strategy of cruelty to outbid those whose whole platform is built on cruelty, failure is inevitable. Even if governments succeed in enacting "strict" policies or reduce asylum numbers, the far right will simply identify other minority groups to target, dehumanise, and blame.

This aggression shows no signs of diminishing. Turning vast regions like the Sahara and the Mediterranean into areas of peril is insufficient for those who view their struggle as a cultural war, steeped in ethnic myths and "remigration" fantasies that ultimately target Europe's own minority citizens.

The ideology of the far right are gaining momentum, forging alliances globally and enabling migration to be used as a vehicle for democratic erosion. Internationally, powerful voices are echoing this rhetoric, with recent strategy documents from a former U.S. administration calling to end the "age of large-scale movement" and to resist Europe's "civilizational erasure". Such statements are hailed as victories by far-right parties within Europe.

The Path Ahead: Hardening or Resistance?

What, then, does the future hold for Europe's fortified borders? The EU's current trajectory appears clear. With the new pact on migration and asylum coming into full force in 2026, another milestone in border fortification will be reached. Rather than challenging narratives of never-ending emergency, the pact effectively turns crisis into official procedure. It will enable member states to accelerate border processes, extend detention, and curtail asylum rights during vaguely defined "exceptional situations" of mass arrival. Critics argue these provisions are so broad that they risk turning into the norm, permanently weakening rights across the continent.

In a world full of reasons for forced displacement—from war and genocide to capitalist extraction and environmental collapse—increased border security, mass deportations, and a widespread approach of cruelty will never "solve" migration. What they accomplish is the decay of democratic standards, widening social rifts, and amplified racist hostility.

Given that migration has become the cornerstone of the current anti-democratic shift, it is precisely around migration that resistance must form. How we will look back on the decade from 2026 to 2035 is, in the end, up to us. Performing rescue operations in the Mediterranean, disrupting immigration raids and deportation flights, and reclaiming cities as spaces of plurality and solidarity—these are all vitally important actions that protect our fellow people and confront the authoritarian forces growing around us.